Defense Secretary Gates (someone I’m a big fan of) made a surprise visit to the Afghanistan capital of Kabul yesterday to call for at least 10,000 more troops to be deployed to the country. (Where we get those troops isn’t very clear without drawing down in Iraq.) Today he apologized for the Sep 9th attack that killed an estimated 90 civilians and, more importantly, Admiral Mike Mullen is in Islamabad to help sooth the tensions over the cross-board attacks.
I find this significant. As I wrote yesterday, Pakistan isn’t to happy with American attacks inside their boarders. Reports had stated that Pakistan’s military was under orders to fire on US forces entering the tribal areas. That clearly got everyone’s attention and now the military is flexing some soft power. Which is good, because it looks like there was another UAV attack inside Pakistan today.
Right now, everyone is saying the right things. “We’re going to work together more.” “No really, Pakistan is doing a great job.” “American attacks inside Pakistan are only against Taliban forces.” And so forth. Really, Admiral Mullen is giving the leadership of Pakistan the opportunity to yell at him and tell him how pissed off they are at the US in person. That’s the first step to easing tensions. It’s like eating a bunch of humble pie… though one wonder’s how well that pie will go down with the UAV attack today.
In Imagination Land:
Admiral Mullen, “Sorry for all those cross border attacks. We promise to be more cooperative about them in the future.”
Pakistani Leadership, “Damn straight you will!”
Pakistani assistant, “Sir, there’s just been another America attack in the FATA.”
Admiral Mullen, “Gottago…”
Tags: afghanistan,
bob gates,
military,
pakistan
By Christopher on 09/17/08 06:28 PM | | Link | Comments [0]
Yesterday news reports came out that US helicopters were fired upon by Pakistani forces while crossing the border for a strike on Taliban forces in South Waziristan. This got my attention. Not because attacks inside Pakistani are all that rare – there have been at least 16 this year – but because the mutterings suggested that the Pakistani forces were ordered to fire on US forces.
Despite claims by both US and Pakistani forces that our helicopters were not fired upon, news today is that Pakistani forces in South Waziristan do indeed have standing orders to prevent further incursions by US forces. But wait, it’s Pakistan our friend and ally? Don’t they want to help out rid the world of al-Qaida and it’s friends the Taliban, both of whom are known to be hiding out in the border regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan? Isn’t it widely assumed that bin Laden is hunkered down in a cave in South Waziristan or one of its neighboring regions? Well?
Well, South Waziristan is one of a number of border regions that the central government in Pakistan has little control over. These regions, that border Afghanistan, are the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) with the emphasis placed on “Tribal Areas” instead of “Federally Administered.” The tribes are mainly Pashtun, Pakistan itself is mostly Punjabis. The Taliban is as much a Sunni extremist organization as it is a Pashtun nationalism movement. Still with me here?
Former President Musharraf tried a number of different approaches to keep the boarder regions in line. Prior to 2001, Pakistan was the only country that recognized the Taliban government. However, once the US decided to bomb the Taliban out of existence, Musharraf switched sides and helped out the US. This left the FATA tribes at odds with the federal governments. Following their defeat in greater Afghanistan, the Taliban moved south and slowly moved into Pakistan. In 2007, responding to the “Talibanization” of the tribal areas, the government stepped up its military and police presence causing some serious fighting between federal forces and tribal, Taliban and al-Qaida forces. After nearly a year of this low-level conflict, the government cut a peace deal with the tribes, which basically said, “Look, we don’t want to fight any more” and that’s it.
That is pretty much where things stood until September 3, when a US raid killed upwards to 20 civilians due to, among other things, faulty intelligence. Granted, it was in Afghanistan, but Pakistan wasn’t happy about it. They’ve got a new president who’d probably like it if militant forces in South Waziristan don’t try to blow him up. And how does a new leader of a Muslim country show his bones? By firing at US forces.
So now one our most needed allies in the long war against al-Qaida is willing to shot at us and the other – the British – isn’t thrilled with our cross-border raids into their former crown jewel. And to think, the war in Afghanistan was once considered a success.
[Update: Good article by Christopher Hitchens about the Afghan-Pakistan War in Slate today.]
Tags: afghanistan,
pakistan,
taliban,
the long war
By Christopher on 09/16/08 12:38 PM | | Link | Comments [0]
“Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, has won a sweeping victory in Pakistan’s presidential election.” – BBC News
Democracy is not easier and it doesn’t come cheap. Pakistan has a slue of problems that elections themselves cannot fix. First, as many people know, they are dealing with their own tribal insurgency that has ties to and operates with the Taliban. What is not as well known is that Pakistan’s intelligence agency (the ISI) has ties to a number of insurgent groups and – politically speaking – has not been very friendly to the Pakistan People’s Party, of which Mr. Zardari is the head of.
I’m not expert, but when I look at Pakistan, I see a nation that barely cuts above “failed state” and – sadly – I see the future of Iraq. Here’s to President Zaradri, he’s got a tough job a head.
Tags: pakistan,
zardari
By Christopher on 09/06/08 02:12 PM | | Link | Comments [0]
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